The second theory is a very interesting one, and I think most people have the same thoughts on it. I don't really share this school of thoughts, but probably I'm in the minority. You'll see why in a minute.
We've already been reminded several times in the show that Splinter had a daughter who is believed to have burned to death along with his wife years before the story began. In no other incarnation does Splinter have a biological child. A lot of people think that they've reminded us so many times of his child is because she's not actually dead. There's a very good chance that instead of the Shredder getting caught in the fire accidentally, he got his burns by running into the fire to save Tang Shen and, when he couldn't get to her, rescued her child, Miwa.
A lot of people are saying that Miwa is actually Karai, and that the Shredder renamed her and raised her as his own child as a sort of revenge against Hamato Yoshi.
Now, I'm not saying this isn't possible, because it's completely possible. They writers have set it up so that Miwa could in fact be alive and well, and we'll see her at some point. It also makes complete sense that it could be Karai. She's the correct age, she seems to be of an Asian ethnicity, and her skill in ninjitsu is undeniable (not that skills are necessarily hereditary, but it couldn't hurt). It would also explain why Shredder raised her as his own since he doesn't seem to be a family man in any sense of the word. BUT... I have to say that although it would completely work, I don't think that will be the case.
Why do I think this? For one good reason- It would be too easy.
As a writer, especially one for a television show, their main goal is to surprise and shock the viewers with plot twists. If something happens that everyone expects, no one is surprised. If Karai did in fact eventually turn out to be Miwa, then it wouldn't be a surprise. Everyone would either expect it, or be prepared for it. The writers would then not be doing their job, at least in my opinion. Now, some things are okay to not be too surprising. Some things, like Donnie and Leo's respective crushes, are cute and just things that the fans wanted to see. Something like Miwa's Reveal, on the other hand, would be completely different. Karai as Miwa would by that point be just ordinary, and instead of fans being super surprised, they'd just say something like "Well, finally." That's not the reaction you want when doing a grand reveal.
I think that they might very well build up people expecting Karai to be Miwa, and then at the last second pull a gigantic flip. Like, Karai is really just an orphan that Shredder picked up and adopted, and Miwa is actually someone else. Or maybe she is in fact really and truly dead.
Honestly, I expect them to do something like make it so that instead of Karai being Miwa, it's Irma Langenstein, who is supposed to make her debut appearance in Season Two. Now, the how and why of Irma being her is up in the air, since obviously Irma is just an example. Miwa could still be in Japan as an orphan for all we know. I just mentioned Irma because in her quick Easter Egg appearance in "Mouser's Attack", her appearance seems, to me, Japanese. It could be anyone, she was just the first Most Unlikely Candidate for me to think of.
I would put a better picture of Irma up here for us to see, but since she's not in the show yet there's no good ones. This is the best I could do to help make my point. If you want to see for sure if she looks Asian, you can re-watch the episode Mouser's Attack.
So that's my personal take on the Miwa Theory. I don't really have anyone in mind as to who it might actually be, I just don't think it's Karai. It would be way to obvious. But if I'm wrong, we'll just see in the future.
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